Met Office Can’t Predict the Weather

Never in the field of human science has so many lies been told to so many, by so few

Met Office’s debate over longer-term forecasts

The UK Met Office is debating what to do with its long-term and seasonal forecasting after criticism for failing to predict extreme weather.

This is quite amusing. The apparently independent Met Office, who predict all the weather in the UK, from the next day forecasts right up to predictions on ‘Climate Change’ some 20, 50 and even 100 years in the future; cannot actually predict anything.

[The Met Office] has been criticised for failing to predict in its seasonal forecasts that the UK would suffer this cold winter or the previous three wet summers.

Well, there is a very good reason for that isn’t there? They could not possible predict colder weather, when more than 25% of their budget comes from ‘Climate Change Research’!

After being rapped for its now notorious “barbecue summer” press release, the winter forecast was expressed in probabilistic terms, with a 66% likelihood that the winter would be warmer than average and a one in seven chance that it would be colder.

One in seven chance that it would be colder, and yet it turned out to be the coldest winter for more than 30 years! The coldest winter since this ‘Global Warming’ business began. And that of course is the important thing as:

The Met Office admits its annual global mean forecast predicted temperatures higher than actual temperatures for nine years out of the last 10.

Now why would that be? It has become almost like a religion, they believe it so much and think that if they want it hard enough, it will happen. The fact is that the Met Office has been over egging Global Warming for years, telling us that things are getting so much more worse and the new catch phrase of course of ‘Time Is Running Out’ but evidently not as quickly as the Met Office, or indeed the Hadley Centre, would like.

SCHTOP! Global Warming is not ready yet!

Crazy People: Some made use of the fact that the rivers were frozen by going for a dip or ice skating. Something rarely possible since the Victorian cold spell.

The fact that they keep predicting that Global Warming is continuing apace, when anyone can see that it is not, displays quite clearly that the Met Office is no longer fit for purpose. It wouldn’t be so bad if they came clean and admitted they their predictions are wrong, but no, they are claiming that the actual temperatures are wrong and their predictions are right!

Professor Chris Folland from the Met Office said a re-analysis of weather science might even show that the actual temperature measurements have under-recorded recent warming – making the Met Office forecast even more accurate than it appears.

Quite right Prof Folland, this is indeed a warming than average winter, my thermometers and indeed my eye sight are clearly under recording the weather! This is unbelievable, the man is clearly clutching at straws and refused to believe anything that contradicts his doctrine. The man is not a scientist, his has become a preacher.

But some scientists contacted by BBC News say the organisation needs to discover why there is a consistent bias towards warming, however slight.

Money, pure and simple. They are the champions of a billion pound industry, and as I have said, they receive more than a quarter of their funding from the government to investigate Global Warming. You do not have to be Sherlock Holmes to realise that they might not be the quickest to pour cold water on the whole Global Warming nonsense.

Global Warming Cult

As I said earlier it has become a pseudo religion. It has been stated that we are building up to Thermogeddon, and that cannot, under any circumstances, falter or deviate from the pre-determined pattern of global warming. Like all good zealots, they are perfectly prepared to ignore, or as the Climate Gate emails demonstrated, doctor, any evidence to the contrary.

“The warming bias is admittedly very small – but the Met Office has to address why it is there. It will certainly be very difficult to get rid of – they can’t just knock a bit off their forecast – that would be totally unscientific.”

Unscientific? As is adding this bias in the first place, it has nothing to do with science or even any real scientific methodology. They believe it should be warmer, so they add the bias, regardless of the facts.

The short term forecasts are excellent. They should say the longer-term ones are highly uncertain, then keep modifying them.

And this is the crux of the matter. Their short term forecast may well be excellent, but hell, even I can look out of the window and see a cloudy sky and know that it is likely to rain, and I am no meteorologist. The problem lies with their long term forecasts and they seem to rely completely on flawed computer modeling.

‘If you run the (computer) model one year it might not come out right but over 50-100 years you will be able to predict that the climate is getting warmer on average but not if, say, 2031 will be a warmer or a colder year.’

Absolute rubbish. Computers cannot predict the future, nor can they predict the weather. They can only predict an outcome based on the variables and parameters that they are given. Now if the Met Office is adding the same ‘warming bias’ to these computer models, then obviously these too will be inaccurate. Worse, the margin of error will increase year on year and means that in 100 years, the warming bias will have carried the prediction to a ridiculous extreme.

The important line in his statement is this ‘…you will be able to predict that the climate is getting warmer…‘ that is not a prediction. You cannot know the outcome before even running the computer models unless the computer has been programmed to come up with that prediction. If I create a spreadsheet to work out my incomings and outgoings and my monthly surplus, I do not start of by stating that ‘I can create a spreadsheet to ensure that my monthly surplus is £700!’

But I guess that is the problem with the Climate Change Creed. They know the outcome that they want, that they believe in, they just need to computer models to prove it. Easy, when you program in a bias to ensure thermogeddon.

Dissenting Voices

According to Met Office long term predictions, this snowman cannot exist, indeed this child should never have seen a snowman in her whole life. As Britain was due to be a desert by her 16th birthday.

It seems that these days, one must look to independent forecasters to get any accurate or old fashioned truthful information.

Others see the problem as one of forecasting rather than communication. Piers Corbyn, the independent weather forecaster, predicted the winter cold many months ago, to the surprise of many meteorologists. He says the Met Office failed to warn of extreme events in their seasonal forecasts because they are employing a computer model based on the assumption of man-made climate change.

That is the point. They have already ‘predicted’ that it is going to get warmer, which means that all of the predictions of the Met Office are flawed. It doesn’t matter whether they decide to no longer publish their seasonal forecasts, their long term ‘Climate Change’ forecasts will still be wrong and they will continue to be more and more erroneous as time goes on.

No wonder that more than half of people in Britain no longer believe in Global Warming.

Murdered by Sydney Silverman

Robert Cusworth - Sick and Callous killer

Chef stabbed to death teaching assistant ‘because he was in a bad mood’ | Mail Online

A chef today admitted murdering an innocent teaching assistant because he was ‘in a bad mood.’

A poor innocent woman, who’d just nipped out to walk her dog, something that millions of Britons do each day, brutally murdered for no reason whatsoever.

One can only imagine the sheer horror that the unfortunate Mrs Sally Garwood must have experienced when a complete stranger grabbed her and decided to end her life.

Robert Cusworth has offered no real explanation for doing what he did, other than that he was in a bad mood. One can only hope that upon reaching prison, he runs into lots of nasty people in similar bad moods.

Justice of sorts

Cusworth, the cowardly scum that he is, at least did one thing right, he admitted what he had done. Saving the witnesses, one of whom was just nine years old, the trauma of having to give evidence in court. Although he is likely to get a ‘life’ sentence, it is unlikely to give Mr Garwood, nor the family of his wife, the justice that they deserve. No matter how many years he gets, he’ll only serve half of them, and as I have mentioned previously, not necessarily in what most of us would term ‘a prison’.

Sally Garwood had planned on starting a family with her husband Simon, but a simple walk with the dog through her local park ended any such hopes for Sally. She’ll never now have children or do anything else again. She’d probably left her home that morning, like any one of us, planning her day, her future perhaps. Instead she spent her final moments in agonising terror because the sick and callous Robert Cusworth had felt a little down that day.

Cusworth, who’s 25 years old, will most likely be out of prison and getting on with his life before he reaches 40. Indeed he’ll most likely be out before he reaches 34, the same age that Sally Garwood reached before she was brutally slain by him.

Instead of picking his child up from primary school, Mr Garwood will most likely still be trying to come to terms with the loss of his wife by the time that Cusworth is released, most likely early, further adding to his continuing pain. For those that lose someone in such tragic and senseless circumstances, the pain doesn’t end until they too die.

I’ve said it before, and I will continue saying it. We have the abolitionists to thank for people like Robert Cusworth.

Capital punishment cuts re-offending rates

The very fact that a man would consider going out and harming someone, especially with a knife, is because we have no effective means of punishment in Britain. There are no decisions that can have drastic or life limiting consquences for people like Robert Cusworth. What matter was it to him if he hurt or killed someone? He’d be OK. At worst he’d served a decade or so in prison, most likely with Satellite television in his room, access to the latest games consoles and games, day releases for study or even shopping trips. Not to mention on site medical and dental care.

Yes, that’s the worst that he could face. At best he’d be declared mentally ill, and then be let out to do it again in just a few years.

For those that state that hanging is no deterrent – rubbish! The man clearly thinks often of his own well being, deciding against tackling a lone male jogger as he wasn’t an easy enough target. The nine year old school boy most likely has Sally Garwood to thank for being in front of him, otherwise he’d have most likely being the target of Cusworth’s ire.

Had Cusworth really been that down hearted and depressed, he’d have killed himself, but no, because he valued his own life so highly, and because society values the lives of innocent, law abiding citizens so cheaply, he had far less to lose by killing someone else.

The murder rate in Britain has tripled since 1965 when Sydney Silverman MP, a pacifist and conscientious objector finally got his wish and the death penalty was effectively abolished. Thank god there were not more like him during World War II.

Prior to this the murder rate has been decreasing virtually year on year for nearly a century. The murder rate stood at 6.2 murders per million people in Britain in 1960 and began to rise when it became clear that the death penalty was to be abolished, since then it has barely looked back, topping 20.3 murders per million by 2002.

Robert Cusworth and people like him need to be hung, anyone callous enough to kill a total stranger for no other reason than they were in a bad mood deserves to lose the only thing that people like this truly value, their own life. Once, taking someone’s liberty would have been considered a serious punishment, but in modern Britain it has become laughable. The only real punishment is the same one that these kind of people dish out willy nilly, one that is irreversible and final. Death.

Judging by the trend in murder rates for the 100 years prior to the abolition, Sydney Silverman and his like minded liberal colleagues have been responsible for the needless deaths of more than 3000 innocent people, all to save the lives of a few hundred murderers.

Global Warming Con

Daily Mail | Hackers ‘expose global warming con’: Sceptics claim that leaked emails reveal research centre massaged temperature data

One of the world’s leading climate change research centres has been accused of manipulating data on global warming after thousands of private emails and documents were leaked.

This comes as no real surprise to me. It is something that I have suspected for years now and although people often ask, why would they lie about it? I think that the answer is two fold.

One with Nature

There are those that believe we should revert back to the dark ages, no electricity, no transport, and most importantly no modern luxuries – living simply as nature intended. Apart from the obvious flaws of this plan, the biggest is that we’d starve in our millions, but I think that that part might actually be part of the plan.

The other reason is simply money. Nothing, ever, has seen investment like the Green lobby. With plans announced recently to have Climate Change forming a major part of the school curriculum and grants being given out left, right and centre, it looks as though the Climate industry may well soon surpass the IT industry in Britain.

Children will soon be leaving our education system with degrees in topics such as sustainability, climate modelling, and saving energy. No doubt this will vastly increase the number of 18-24 year olds that are unemployed from 1 in 5, to 1 in 3. Not even the public sector needs that many sustainability officers.

The email suggesting ‘hiding the decline’ is purported to be from Phil Jones, the unit’s director.
Read more

The hackers here have clearly shown that the Climate Believers will stop at nothing to ensure that their theory is seen to be correct, whether the evidence backs it or not, and where it does not back their hypothesis, they will simply change it to fit. After all, like the Hadley Centre, they do not share the sources of their information, just in case they are proven wrong, or caught lying.

When the people in charge of the data do not allow it to be inspected, indeed profit from the data backing their theories, then you no longer have scientific data or information, you have propaganda.

Prison Service – There’s No Place Like Home

Another thug for whom serving time is not to dissimilar from being at home

Outrage as violent thug who attacked policeman with crowbar is allowed out on day release after just two years | Mail Online

An armed robber who speared a policeman with a 2ft-long crowbar has been let out of prison on day release after serving just two years in jail, it been revealed.

Well it seems that you don’t have to be a mentalist to benefit from Britain’s lax Justice System. Fortunately that particular criminal was quickly apprehended after absconding and will no doubt have her day release privileges sternly re-assessed, before being re-instated in about a fortnight.

As for this ruffian, he was initially sentenced to eight years in prison, and as the Judge said when he tried to get his driving license back!

The judge told the court: ‘I don’t know what is going on with the Prison Service. A man gets eight years in 2007, and here he is on day release in 2009.

Welcome to the Criminal Justice system in 21st century Britain Judge, where have you been?

Prison

Prison is a joke, the prison’s website states:

The prison operates a ‘resettlement regime’ aimed at preparing prisoners for release by addressing ‘accommodation, employment, vocational training and offending behaviour needs’,

In other words the prisoners are let out and about almost as soon as the prison gate closes behind them. This man for instance, has been enjoying full weeks at home, enrolled on college courses and can apparently apply to courts to have his driving license re-instated.

This callous thug was given eight years for his part in a robbery and for stabbing a police officer with a crow bar, an act that perforated his bowel and left him fighting for his life. The police man is now stuck with a colostomy bag for the rest of his life, his assailant has to put up with the minor inconvenience of having to report back to prison every now and again.

It is good to see that the prison service thinks that it is OK to have him roaming the streets again, after having served less than a quarter of his sentence. Why bother with prison at all, we could save a fortune by removing this pretense at punishment and having all criminals serve there sentences at home.

No wonder the re-offending rate is at 60%, this man has been taught nothing, except that he can do as he pleases, and people will fall over themselves to try and help him.

Crazed Killer Takes Break From Shopping Trip

Another escaped mentalist

BBC NEWS | England | London | Female killer flees on shop visit

A woman convicted of murder has gone on the run during an escorted visit to the shops in south London

I find this quite bizarre, but maybe I am just out of touch with the criminal justice system. One would think that someone convicted of murder would not be allowed out of prison just a couple of years later, not even for funerals of loved ones.

Day Trip

These days it seems that murders don’t even have to wait for the deaths of relatives to have days out, now simply a request for a shopping trip can get them out and about. And why not? Why should they be punished? It isn’t as if they are dangerous criminals or as if they have killed anyone, is it?

Det Supt Gary Gornell said: “This individual is dangerous and we need to apprehend her as soon as possible. If anyone sees her, please don’t approach her, but call police immediately.”

Yes, this woman is so dangerous that someone, somewhere thought it a good idea to take her out as a treat on a shopping trip! What did they expect she’d do two years into an indefinite sentence and being a convicted mentalist?

I’ve mentioned this sort of thing before, and it nearly always ends in tears, usually some poor innocent’s who was merely going about their daily business, secure in the knowledge that all the mad axe murderers were locked up. The poor innocent fools rarely take into account the do-gooders and their attempts to reason and understand the voice heeders, at least until they are getting stabbed to death.

So now we just await the inevitable death, that will be labelled entirely preventable by the coroner; for the inevitable investigation that will follow said death, and then for the usual round of ‘lessons will be learned,’ etc from those in charge. All this of course will be followed by the exact same thing happening again, and by me writing yet another post about it. Then again to be fair, it would be impossible for the paranoid schizophrenics to keep up their quota of 1 in 10 of all murders in Britain if the Government didn’t keep letting them out.

The Great Escape

Still, every cloud has a silver lining, Paul Caesar, the focus of another post about this kind of thing, having been tipped off by another inmate that his best chance of making a safe getaway was to catch a train, made his way to the train station. Unfortunately he couldn’t quite grasp the concept of catching a train, and he jumped down onto the tracks and held his arms open and ended up splattered all over the front of one.

We can only hope that Patricia Gillette is armed with the same information, and dazzling intellect.