Met Office’s debate over longer-term forecasts
Never in the field of human science has so many lies been told to so many, by so few
The UK Met Office is debating what to do with its long-term and seasonal forecasting after criticism for failing to predict extreme weather.
This is quite amusing. The apparently independent Met Office, who predict all the weather in the UK, from the next day forecasts right up to predictions on ‘Climate Change’ some 20, 50 and even 100 years in the future; cannot actually predict anything.
[The Met Office] has been criticised for failing to predict in its seasonal forecasts that the UK would suffer this cold winter or the previous three wet summers.
Well, there is a very good reason for that isn’t there? They could not possible predict colder weather, when more than 25% of their budget comes from ‘Climate Change Research’!
After being rapped for its now notorious “barbecue summer” press release, the winter forecast was expressed in probabilistic terms, with a 66% likelihood that the winter would be warmer than average and a one in seven chance that it would be colder.
One in seven chance that it would be colder, and yet it turned out to be the coldest winter for more than 30 years! The coldest winter since this ‘Global Warming’ business began. And that of course is the important thing as:
The Met Office admits its annual global mean forecast predicted temperatures higher than actual temperatures for nine years out of the last 10.
Now why would that be? It has become almost like a religion, they believe it so much and think that if they want it hard enough, it will happen. The fact is that the Met Office has been over egging Global Warming for years, telling us that things are getting so much more worse and the new catch phrase of course of ‘Time Is Running Out’ but evidently not as quickly as the Met Office, or indeed the Hadley Centre, would like.
SCHTOP! Global Warming is not ready yet!
Crazy People: Some made use of the fact that the rivers were frozen by going for a dip or ice skating. Something rarely possible since the Victorian cold spell.
The fact that they keep predicting that Global Warming is continuing apace, when anyone can see that it is not, displays quite clearly that the Met Office is no longer fit for purpose. It wouldn’t be so bad if they came clean and admitted they their predictions are wrong, but no, they are claiming that the actual temperatures are wrong and their predictions are right!
Professor Chris Folland from the Met Office said a re-analysis of weather science might even show that the actual temperature measurements have under-recorded recent warming – making the Met Office forecast even more accurate than it appears.
Quite right Prof Folland, this is indeed a warmer than average winter, my thermometers and indeed my eye sight are clearly under recording the weather! This is unbelievable, the man is clearly clutching at straws and refuses to believe anything that contradicts his doctrine. The man is not a scientist, he has become a preacher.
But some scientists contacted by BBC News say the organisation needs to discover why there is a consistent bias towards warming, however slight.
Money, pure and simple. They are the champions of a billion pound industry, and as I have said, they receive more than a quarter of their funding from the government to investigate Global Warming. You do not have to be Sherlock Holmes to realise that they might not be the quickest to pour cold water on the whole Global Warming nonsense.
Global Warming Cult
As I said earlier it has become a pseudo religion. It has been stated that we are building up to Thermogeddon, and that cannot, under any circumstances, falter or deviate from the pre-determined pattern of global warming. Like all good zealots, they are perfectly prepared to ignore, or as the Climate Gate emails demonstrated, doctor, any evidence to the contrary.
“The warming bias is admittedly very small – but the Met Office has to address why it is there. It will certainly be very difficult to get rid of – they can’t just knock a bit off their forecast – that would be totally unscientific.”
Unscientific? As is adding this bias in the first place, it has nothing to do with science or even any real scientific methodology. They believe it should be warmer, so they add the bias, regardless of the facts.
The short term forecasts are excellent. They should say the longer-term ones are highly uncertain, then keep modifying them.
And this is the crux of the matter. Their short term forecast may well be excellent, but hell, even I can look out of the window and see a cloudy sky and know that it is likely to rain, and I am no meteorologist. The problem lies with their long term forecasts and they seem to rely completely on flawed computer modeling.
‘If you run the (computer) model one year it might not come out right but over 50-100 years you will be able to predict that the climate is getting warmer on average but not if, say, 2031 will be a warmer or a colder year.’
Absolute rubbish. Computers cannot predict the future, nor can they predict the weather. They can only predict an outcome based on the variables and parameters that they are given. Now if the Met Office is adding the same ‘warming bias’ to these computer models, then obviously these too will be inaccurate. Worse, the margin of error will increase year on year and means that in 100 years, the warming bias will have carried the prediction to a ridiculous extreme.
The important line in his statement is this ‘…you will be able to predict that the climate is getting warmer…‘ that is not a prediction. You cannot know the outcome before even running the computer models unless the computer has been programmed to come up with that prediction. If I create a spreadsheet to work out my incomings and outgoings and my monthly surplus, I do not start off by stating that ‘I can create a spreadsheet to ensure that my monthly surplus is £700!’
But I guess that is the problem with the Climate Change Creed. They know the outcome that they want, that they believe in, they just need to computer models to prove it. Easy, when you program in a bias to ensure thermogeddon.
According to Met Office long term predictions, this snowman cannot exist, indeed this child should never have seen a snowman in her whole life. As Britain was due to be a desert by her 16th birthday.
It seems that these days, one must look to independent forecasters to get any accurate or old fashioned truthful information.
Others see the problem as one of forecasting rather than communication. Piers Corbyn, the independent weather forecaster, predicted the winter cold many months ago, to the surprise of many meteorologists. He says the Met Office failed to warn of extreme events in their seasonal forecasts because they are employing a computer model based on the assumption of man-made climate change.
That is the point. They have already ‘predicted’ that it is going to get warmer, which means that all of the predictions of the Met Office are flawed. It doesn’t matter whether they decide to no longer publish their seasonal forecasts, their long term ‘Climate Change’ forecasts will still be wrong and they will continue to be more and more erroneous as time goes on.
No wonder that more than half of people in Britain no longer believe in Global Warming.