The Might of the EU

As the war in Georgia has recently shown, a resurgent Russia is one of the most powerful nations on earth, in terms of both military power and influence. Completely dependent on Russian fuel, Europe is at the mercy of Putin.

The EU is often described as toothless, weak and spineless, so I thought it would be interesting just to see what the military might of the EU is. Although it has no formal army the EU is made up of some of the world’s foremost powers and could be forced to act if say Russia took the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in Georgia, or cut off supplies to Europe.

The EU as a single entity would be the richest nation on earth but even individually the nations that make up the EU are well off. France has the largest defence budget in the EU and the second largest in the world, some £39 billion; Russia has a budget of just £24 billion. In fact all of the EU’s big three nations, France, Britain (£36 billion) and Germany (£24.2 billion) spend more on defence each year than Russia. Even China spends more on defence each year than its former comrade with £31 billion.

The combined EU defence budget is £165 billion, the second largest in the world, after of course the US, which spends an incredible £308 billion a year on defence and accounts for almost half of the world’s combined defence budget.

The EU big four would make up the bulk of any EU force. In terms of manpower France once again leads the way with a total of 750,000 men, including reserves; Germany, 700,000; Italy, 600,000; Britain, 440,000. A combined EU force would number 7.2 million men, including reserves but without reserves that number would be just 2.2 million active service personnel.

Russia has 1.2 million active service personnel, the US 1.6 million. China is the only country able to field more men that the EU, at 2.3 million.

As Sun Tzu said:

“In war, numbers alone confer no advantage.”

There has never been more true than in modern warfare. Russia has a staggering amount of equipment, and would certainly be high on anyone’s ‘nations not to fuck with’ list. Russia has a whopping 25,000 tanks, 2000 fighter aircraft and still has a formidable navy, 2 aircraft carriers, over 100 warships and about 85 submarines.

In comparison France has about 1000 tanks, 300 fighter aircraft, 1 aircraft carrier, 30 warships and 10 subs. Altogether though, the EU has over 8000 tanks, 2500 fighter aircraft, 8 aircraft carriers, about 200 warships and about 80 subs.

The USA has 8000 tanks, 2500 fighter aircraft, an incredible 12 aircraft carriers (which is more than Russia, the EU and China combined), over 150 warships and about 80 subs.

Far from being a toothless tiger, the EU certainly has the military might for a direct confrontation with Russia, or anyone else for that matter, but there is one area where the EU dominates all other nations.

Bureaucrats.

The number of bureaucrats in the EU, including the EU and domestic ones, must run into the millions and this is the Achilles heel of the EU.

Were Russia to take control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in Georgia and cut off the fuel supplies to Europe, the citizens of the EU would have frozen to death or died of starvation long before the bureaucrats had reached any consensus on a plan of action.

The conflict in Georgia has shown who really holds all the cards on this side of the Atlantic. Sarkozy may believe that he negociated a ceasefire, but in reality Russia had made its point. A quarter of Georgia is now in the hands of the Russian army, it is unlikely they will ever be returned.

I am sure that in the next few weeks and months, Georgia and the Ukraine will renounce any plans to join either the EU or NATO.

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Royal Navy under French command

Royal Navy warships may form part of EU fleet – Telegraph

Royal Navy vessels could take part in a new “European Union fleet” being planned by France.

I am not sure that I see a problem with this, in fact it could well be a good idea. It is about time that the EU had more clout and in the current climate, where the UN is ineffectual and bogged down with bureaucracy and the US is already over stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, it would be good to have another power looking after humanitarian interests.

But back to the real world, all this means is that EU countries will have one of the most powerful navies in the world protecting them, the Royal Navy. The Royal Navy has the second largest carrier fleet in the world, as unbelievable as that may sound, with a whopping 3 carriers. France has just 1, Germany 0, Italy 1, Russia also has just 1.

France is currently building another aircraft carrier, but Britain is building two big new carriers that will take the fleet to 5 (although three will probably be decommissioned), giving the EU quite a carrier fleet at about 8 carriers. The US has 24.

The Royal Navy also has the largest submarine fleet in the EU, twice the size of its nearest rival, but only half the size of the Russian and Chinese fleets, and a third of the size of the US one.

I can see why France would want a European Union Fleet, all of the benefits of the Royal Navy and none of the costs, but this isn’t all one way traffic. I am sure that the British government is thinking the same thing, after all why build the destroyers that the Royal Navy desperately needs, when we could use the French and German ones? The RN has just eight destroyers, the French and Germans have twelve each.

This could be the start of another cost saving plan by the government to scale down the Royal Navy and have other nations fill the gaps.

The other concern is spelt out by the Conservative Defence spokesman:

“We need to know if this is an attempt by the Government to ingratiate itself with EU allies and in so doing sell the Royal Navy down the river. “

Both France and Germany have shown their unwillingness to risk their own armed forces in Afghanistan so will the EU Fleet simply be a way of France and Germany getting the British to once again do the fighting for them?

This scheme has grand aims but I think that it will be forever bogged down with just who contributes what for each mission and more importantly, who controls the fleet, and the French have never been much good at compromising.

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Gordon wants a part time army

BBC NEWS | Politics | Brown hits back on forces funding

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has rejected criticism from five former military chiefs about the treatment of and funding for the armed forces.

It comes to something when the Prime Minister is criticised by not one, but FIVE (and today a sixth as well) former military chiefs. One or two could, perhaps, have had an axe to grind but six shows that he really has been failing the army.

We’ve been hearing complaints left right and centre for years now, both from the army itself and also from experts and reporters in Iraq and Afghanistan. The army is under funded and under equipped and typical political remarks such as Des Browne saying that our defence budget was second only to that of America, only highlight the inadequacies.

Actually the UK’s defence budget is not the second highest in the world after the US, that would be China, however our military commitments around the world are the second highest in the world, thanks to, and after the US. But let’s put this in perspective, the US spends £260 billion a year on defence; Britain has the same commitments in the Middle East in Iraq and Afghanistan and also others around the world, but spends just £30 billion a year on defence out of a possible tax budget of approximately £290 billion. Incidentally China spends £40 billion a year, even Japan spends about £25 billion a year, about the same as France.  

Therefore stating, incorrectly, that ours is the second highest defence budget in the world doesn’t really mean anything, even if it were true, it should be anyway as thanks to this Government we have more overseas committments than during the cold war.

Besides the important figure when calculating defence spending is the percentage of GDP that is spent on defence. In the 1980s 4.4% of GDP was spent on defence. Today that is just 2.3%, this graphic from the BBC illustrates this better.

Again some perspective is needed the US spends 3.7% of its GDP on defence, France 2.6%. So the UK’s spending is not all that impressive.

Technorati Tags: UK, Britain, Defence, Des Browne, Armed Forces, Gordon Brown, Military, Brown.

ET in France or close by

Now I am not one to believe in such things as UFOs, not since I was a child, but that was way back when Santa Claus was real, heaven was a place that everybody goes after they die and wrestling wasn’t a scripted and poorly acted out pantomime. However this article certainly got my interest.

ThisIsLondon.co.uk

One of the largest UFOs ever seen has been observed by the crew and passengers of an airliner over the Channel Islands. 

An official air-miss report on the incident several weeks ago appears in Pilot magazine.

Several witnesses, many of them respectable members of the community; I was almost convinced. Until I saw the place where it happened, France, or at least off the coast of Guernsey which is about as near to France as any sane person, or in this case Extra Terrestrial, would like to go. These aliens travel light years across the galaxy to visit France? Hardly likely.

Unless of course this is some higher life form’s version of touring the asylum. In that case France would be an ideal choice of destination.

Then again of course they could just have been skirting France on their way to Britain, or the whole thing could just be a trick of the light.